According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon onset over Kerala carries a model uncertainty margin of plus or minus four days. In the previous year, the monsoon also arrived early on May 24. The weather agency stated that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently favourable for the monsoon’s advancement over parts of the southern Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Its extended range forecast indicates widespread rainfall activity along the southern west coast until May 28.
The onset over Kerala is regarded as the official commencement of the southwest monsoon season over the Indian mainland, after which the monsoon gradually progresses northward across the country. Meteorological authorities clarified that an early arrival does not necessarily translate into higher total seasonal rainfall. Variability in rainfall depends on the formation of low-pressure systems and the strength of monsoon surges, which determine rainfall distribution across June, July, and August.
Climate and meteorology experts have cautioned that the developing El Niño pattern in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean may weaken monsoon performance later in the season. El Niño refers to unusually warm sea surface temperatures that disrupt global wind and rainfall systems, often influencing weather patterns across Asia, Africa, and the Americas. In India, El Niño conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and more intense summer heat.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its Climate Prediction Center have indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to develop between May and July and could intensify significantly later in 2026, as reported by The Washington Post. The agency estimates an 82 percent probability of El Niño formation during this period. Scientists also warn that there is more than a 50 percent likelihood of the phenomenon becoming strong or very strong between September and November.
The India Meteorological Department has already projected below-normal monsoon rainfall for the 2026 season, estimating precipitation at 92 percent of the Long Period Average, with an error margin of plus or minus five percent. The Long Period Average for the monsoon season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres. The department further indicated that below-normal rainfall conditions are likely across several regions of the country, although parts of northeast India, northwest India, and southern peninsular India may still receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
Simultaneously, the India Meteorological Department has issued warnings of heatwave to severe heatwave conditions across northwest and central India, expected to persist on most days of the current week. In contrast, several regions are forecast to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next three to four days, including northeast India, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and south interior Karnataka, highlighting sharp regional weather contrasts across the country.
The convergence of an early monsoon onset, emerging El Niño conditions, and widespread extreme weather alerts underscores a highly dynamic and uncertain climatic phase for India, with significant implications for agriculture, water resources, and seasonal temperature patterns.
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